Brexit - Data-based luminaries (again)

Some time ago, I wrote about one of the most brain-dead theories regarding Trump's followers, namely, that racism is their main driver (I do agree, though, that it is one of their drivers, just not the main one). At the time, I left an exercise for the reader:

Looking at the USA, try a little "What if" exercise. What if Mexico and Canada were "reversed"? Apply everything you know about Mexico to Canada and vice-versa, but keep each people's skin color - Mexicans would still be "latino", and Canadians would still be "white". 

Mexicans would visit the USA on tourism, and many would have work relations there, which would be construed as mutually beneficial. Canadians would flock to the USA in their millions, looking for a better life, taking any job available, and working for much lower wages. And with a sizable percentage of illegal immigrants. 

Is anyone really suggesting that if the USA were filled with Canadian immigrants "stealing American jobs", Trump would ignore them just because they're white?

Now, rather predictably, I see the same argument applied to Brexit's Leave campaign. However, this time, as I was reading the articles where this theory was repeated, I noticed a pattern that I'd missed the first time around. I'll show an example from the worst offender I found (predictably, from vox.com); see if you can spot the pattern:

• "Data shows that"
• "Take a look at this chart"
• "put together historical data"
• "real economic effects"
• "he found no correlation at all"
• "a 2011 London School of Economics study finds"

I'll stop here.

It's amazing how these people walk into the issue armed to the teeth with data and charts, and yet their blinders don't allow them to see the total irrelevance of said data and charts.

Repeat after me: Data are not people. If I'm unemployed for months, I don't care that data shows unemployment is getting lower. If I lost my job and got another job doing pretty much the same work, but earning one-third of what I previously earned, I don't care that data shows the economy is recovering.

Data doesn't vote, people do. Data is not important, people's perceptions are. You must address people's perception of reality before you can convince them that the actual reality is shown by the data.

Yes, I agree that data is valuable. I just find it stupid beyond belief that anyone goes about guessing people's motivations based on aggregate data. I find it stupid beyond belief that anyone tries to find a rational cause - and a collective one, at that - for the perceptions of millions upon millions of people.

Yes, you read that right - "rational". Let's go through a few more quotes of vox.com's enlightnment:

• "that people who voted to leave made a rational decision based on the real economic effects"
• "So there are lots of reasons to be skeptical that British voters’ concerns about immigration are a rational response to the effect immigration is having on the economy"
• "The key assumption of the «rational concern» thesis"
• "It only make sense to see hostility to immigration as rational"

Really? Rational? You expect people to vote based on rationality? Why? Do you happen to have any data that backs this outlandish theory that people vote rationally? I'm only asking because there have been plenty of studies throughout the years that have shown the exact opposite. Someone arguing in bad faith would just sweep this under the rug, but these people shouting "racism" about everything are fighting the good fight, so they wouldn't resort to data cherry-picking, right?

Not only is this "rational" shtick idiot, it's particularly so in this context, where both campaigns used fear as their main argument. How would anyone vote rationally? As far as I know, not even those the voted "Remain" voted rationally.

There is rarely anything rational about voting, no matter how many pretty charts we arm ourselves with. There is no "rational concern". There is a perception (correct or incorrect) that "things are getting worse", and it's that perception that drives people to a perceived solution. Read that again - "perceived solution". Is Brexit a solution to the UK's problems? I doubt it.

My perception, faulty though it may be, is that the "Union" part of the EU has always been weak, and it was completely destroyed when the Germany-led bloc decided that it had some serious money to make by destabilizing the weaker economies of the Eurozone. This led to austerity, which led to impoverishment (and also to division, but I've already said enough about that). The argument that the UK is not part of the Euro is moot, because the Tories applied the same recipe in the UK, at that same time. Again, perception.

Are racism and xenophobia a problem? Definitely. But not the problem, and as long as people continue to attack the issue from that angle, I predict a steady supply of "shocking awakenings".

Anyway, best of luck to us all. Looking at these luminaries, we'll definitely need it.