Brexit - Business as usual, for those of us who're staying

Herr Schauble has just done us all an enormous favor by showing that the EU hasn't changed at all, and will carry on being Germany's playground. It's the confirmation I needed to be sure that the UK has done the right thing. I, for one, wish the UK all the best, and hope they can sort their current mess and come off better from all this ordeal.

And congratulations to Erdogan are in order. Great move, aiming to solve the problems with both Israel and Russia. My opinion of these particular leaders is not very flattering, but I have to admit that, when it comes to political vision, they're light-years ahead of the EU's Elected Accountants. Would I like to live in Turkey or Russia? I doubt it. Are they good leaders for their people? Not really, no. But, then again, they're definitely not worse than the "leaders" of the EU, and I have to admire the way they can see beyond budgets and spreadsheets.

Of course, this was all a bit offset by the horrible attack Turkey suffered yesterday, and here, too, I wish them all the best. This is a fight where we are all allies.

Brexit - The Leave campaign idiocy, generation warfare, and racism

I applaud the UK's decision to leave the EU. Not because I have anything against the UK, but because of what the EU has become.

That being said, I don't identify with any of the idiots who led the Leave campaign. Why "idiots"? Let me provide an example - Nigel Farage accused the British MEPs of never having done a proper job (in what must probably have been the most pathetic speech I've ever heard); in turn, this most-competent-fear-monger led a British Armada of fishermen up the Thames, the message being something like "Once we leave the EU, you'll be able to fish as much as you need to Make the UK Great Again (TM)".

Apparently, Nigel Farage doesn't know how it works. I can't say I'm surprised. If there's a pattern that's been repeating since Friday is the "Leave Leaders" going "Well, I didn't say exactly that"; the most hilarious was the bloke (forgot his name, and I'm sure not going to look it up) saying he never claimed the "£350M for the NHS" being photographed in front of the bus that had that exact slogan plastered all over. These idiots are among the finest specimens of Dunning-Kruger I've ever seen.

In the fishing case, it gets better.

• A significant part of the UK's fishermen are Scottish.
• There are unconfirmed reports that the fishing quotas distribution was the usual State handouts to corporations (thus shafting the little guy), and was mostly managed in London, not Brussels.

I hope the UK recovers. I'd really love to watch a good British sitcom about all these idiots.

Generation warfare

"Old people are selfish! They voted «Leave» for their own egotistical reasons!" has been the battle-cry of the British Young Turks since Friday. And what these altruistic young souls usually say next is very enlightening. It goes something like "Now I can't work", "Now I can't travel", or "Now my life is ruined". Quite altruistic, these fellows.

Old geezers should forget their wants and needs and give precedence to the wants and needs of the younger generation. I finally know the location of that "No Country for Old Men (and Women)". Apparently, old people shouldn't have the luxury of choice; perhaps they should sail to Byzantium? Actually, from the opinions I've read from a large number of British Young Turks, they should just sail somewhere far, far away. Preferably on a few dinghies/planks/kale leaves.

It seems old geezers are also very racist. There's been numerous xenophobic incidents since the Brexit vote, caused by emboldened Leave voters (a.k.a., the elderly, since this is the demography most strongly associated with the Leave vote). These old racist swines are usually described as "a group of young people carrying England flags. Not UK flags, England flags" or "a group of lads", and appear to use typical old geezer tactics, like graffiti. Some of these old geezers actually have rather extreme ages, like 30.

I'll let the game of "Spot-the-not-so-minute-pile-of-bovine-fecal-matter" as an exercise for the reader.

Dear millennials... One citizen, one vote. Regardless of race, as I'm sure you'll agree. Regardless of religion, as I'm sure you'll understand. Regardless of age, no matter what you feel right now. If you don't like it, there's a Great Nation in the Korean Peninsula where you'll probably feel right at home.

It's brain-dead beyond belief this mantra of "old people ruined my life". Where were all these fine young specimens of Humanity as austerity ruined countless peoples' lives, including a lot of their own? Yeah, I know - on Twinstabook, or Whatschat.

In fact, forget the recent past, let's ask these outraged youngsters a simple question about the present - Where were you during this EU vote? The same data that millennials present to claim old geezers screwed them also shows millennials barely bothered to show up and vote. Of course, when confronted with this, millennials act just like everyone else - they present excuses, and not very smart excuses, at that.

As for xenophobia... Yes, there are racist assholes. Of all ages, mind you. Yes, they need to be stopped. That's why we have this little thing called the Law. Catch them, prosecute them, and make examples out of them, to show all the other "Forners-Out-Of-Our-Land" idiots what's in store for them. Actually, if you want to start setting examples, look no further than these three assholes: Boris Johnson, Nigel Farage, Michael Gove.

Yes, I know. That's hard work. It's a lot easier going after the little guy. Don't feel bad, dear SJW. Repeating what I said above, you're just like everyone else.

Brexit - Data-based luminaries (again)

Some time ago, I wrote about one of the most brain-dead theories regarding Trump's followers, namely, that racism is their main driver (I do agree, though, that it is one of their drivers, just not the main one). At the time, I left an exercise for the reader:

Looking at the USA, try a little "What if" exercise. What if Mexico and Canada were "reversed"? Apply everything you know about Mexico to Canada and vice-versa, but keep each people's skin color - Mexicans would still be "latino", and Canadians would still be "white". 

Mexicans would visit the USA on tourism, and many would have work relations there, which would be construed as mutually beneficial. Canadians would flock to the USA in their millions, looking for a better life, taking any job available, and working for much lower wages. And with a sizable percentage of illegal immigrants. 

Is anyone really suggesting that if the USA were filled with Canadian immigrants "stealing American jobs", Trump would ignore them just because they're white?

Now, rather predictably, I see the same argument applied to Brexit's Leave campaign. However, this time, as I was reading the articles where this theory was repeated, I noticed a pattern that I'd missed the first time around. I'll show an example from the worst offender I found (predictably, from vox.com); see if you can spot the pattern:

• "Data shows that"
• "Take a look at this chart"
• "put together historical data"
• "real economic effects"
• "he found no correlation at all"
• "a 2011 London School of Economics study finds"

I'll stop here.

It's amazing how these people walk into the issue armed to the teeth with data and charts, and yet their blinders don't allow them to see the total irrelevance of said data and charts.

Repeat after me: Data are not people. If I'm unemployed for months, I don't care that data shows unemployment is getting lower. If I lost my job and got another job doing pretty much the same work, but earning one-third of what I previously earned, I don't care that data shows the economy is recovering.

Data doesn't vote, people do. Data is not important, people's perceptions are. You must address people's perception of reality before you can convince them that the actual reality is shown by the data.

Yes, I agree that data is valuable. I just find it stupid beyond belief that anyone goes about guessing people's motivations based on aggregate data. I find it stupid beyond belief that anyone tries to find a rational cause - and a collective one, at that - for the perceptions of millions upon millions of people.

Yes, you read that right - "rational". Let's go through a few more quotes of vox.com's enlightnment:

• "that people who voted to leave made a rational decision based on the real economic effects"
• "So there are lots of reasons to be skeptical that British voters’ concerns about immigration are a rational response to the effect immigration is having on the economy"
• "The key assumption of the «rational concern» thesis"
• "It only make sense to see hostility to immigration as rational"

Really? Rational? You expect people to vote based on rationality? Why? Do you happen to have any data that backs this outlandish theory that people vote rationally? I'm only asking because there have been plenty of studies throughout the years that have shown the exact opposite. Someone arguing in bad faith would just sweep this under the rug, but these people shouting "racism" about everything are fighting the good fight, so they wouldn't resort to data cherry-picking, right?

Not only is this "rational" shtick idiot, it's particularly so in this context, where both campaigns used fear as their main argument. How would anyone vote rationally? As far as I know, not even those the voted "Remain" voted rationally.

There is rarely anything rational about voting, no matter how many pretty charts we arm ourselves with. There is no "rational concern". There is a perception (correct or incorrect) that "things are getting worse", and it's that perception that drives people to a perceived solution. Read that again - "perceived solution". Is Brexit a solution to the UK's problems? I doubt it.

My perception, faulty though it may be, is that the "Union" part of the EU has always been weak, and it was completely destroyed when the Germany-led bloc decided that it had some serious money to make by destabilizing the weaker economies of the Eurozone. This led to austerity, which led to impoverishment (and also to division, but I've already said enough about that). The argument that the UK is not part of the Euro is moot, because the Tories applied the same recipe in the UK, at that same time. Again, perception.

Are racism and xenophobia a problem? Definitely. But not the problem, and as long as people continue to attack the issue from that angle, I predict a steady supply of "shocking awakenings".

Anyway, best of luck to us all. Looking at these luminaries, we'll definitely need it.

Brexit - That's not exactly what we meant...

First, we have the wedding. Then, the honeymoon. Then, we discover the unpleasant hidden details.

This Brexit Clusterf*ck should probably hold the record for the shortest honeymoon ever. Right after the Wedding Night, the Leaving Knights in Shining Armor were already backpedaling on some of their most iconic campaign flags.

You know that immigration thingie that got you all riled up and made you vote "Leave"? Well, funny you should mention that, because, you know, remember how the Leave campaign said it would "take control back", and all that jazz? Imagine that, as it happens, there are several definitions of "control". In this case, what they meant was taking "some control over roughly who comes in and roughly in what numbers".

Or, translated from weasel-talk, "There's no way in Hell we're going to stop the influx of cheap labor that ensures huge profits for the UK-based elites".

Oh, and you know those weekly £350M that were going to get poured into the NHS, now that the UK would no longer have to give it to those dreadful continental leeches? Apparently, there's been a bit of a cock-up there, I'm afraid. According to Farage, that brilliant example of meritocracy in action, it was "a mistake". No shit, Nigel, old chap. Who could've predicted that, hey?

As much as I applaud the UK for leaving the EU, this won't solve any problem for those that voted "Leave". Just as it happens in Portugal, the national elite is as much part of the problem as the European elites and the elites of the other member-states. And the UK elite won't change its money-sucking ways because of this.

Right now, everybody is wanking about the "market", the "wiped value", and a lot of other meaningless bullshit. When all this blows over, I have little doubt that the rules towards capital movement will be safeguarded, and I suspect that the same won't be guaranteed when it comes to the people.

In or out, those that actually work and create wealth (hint: it's not the elites) will get shafted.

Brexit

And there we have it.

The last few years of remarkable work by such luminaries as Angela Und Wheely Boy and DieselBloke's Eurogroup have just achieved their most impressive result to date. Brexit is the result of the hard work of these and other equally brilliant Elected Accountants.

The crocodile tears shed today by these people were amusing, as was the "good riddance" sentiment expressed by some officials, which was nothing more than the venting of some impotent frustration.

And, as expected, others are lining up for the "we want our referendum, too". They've been collecting benefits from these last few years, and these EU/Europe Elected Accountants are, in truth, The Gift That Keeps On Giving. Officials like these are a dream come true for any leader of an extremist party/movement.

Some have expressed the hope that this would serve as a wake-up call for the EU, so that the disastrous policies of these last years would be reversed.

Yeah, I know. I'll wait a while, until you stop laughing.

There's no way these Elected Accountants can turn back now. These idiots have spent the last few years securing their internal positions using a divisive strategy. Germany set the stage for the Hard-Working North vs. Lazy South. Then, it got a shot of its own remedy, via Hungary's No-Refugee East vs. Refugee-Friendly West.

This is the new image of the EU, a group of petty nations looking suspiciously at each other, progressively more entrenched in the idea that "I'd be better off without these leeches". And this is the image imparted to, and absorbed by, the European people. This is beyond repairing, now.

There will be no significant changes. Imbeciles like our Eurogroup buddies will blissfully carry on, oblivious to anything having to do with politics and to the social and political consequences of their actions.

Little has changed since the last time I said this (2012): The EU is dead. Maybe I should have prefixed it with a "Ding-Dong!"...?