Sunday, November 29, 2015

More European by the minute

Finally, we know the plan for dealing with the migrants, and I must say it's very European. No, that's definitely not a compliment.

We begin our display of European solidarity by telling the migrants that they either accept our "redistribution scheme" or we'll send them back (I'm eagerly waiting to see what this will entail). So, even though most of them want to go to Germany, Sweden, et al (aka, Paradise), they'll actually go to, say, Bulgaria, and like it. And they'll only have any sort of social support in the destination we choose for them. So, if they leave, say, Bulgaria, and head for Paradise, I suspect they'll be in a situation akin to illegal immigration.

If they don't accept, then they can apply right where they are. Which, mostly, means Greece and Italy. Most definitely not Paradise.

So, once again, our hard-working Northern buddies show their solidarity by making sure the mess is Someone Else's Problem(TM).

Oh, and 3K million euros for our Turkish friends, because only with this money can they stem the migrant tide. And let's also resume Turkey's EU membership negotiations, because, as we can plainly see, it's a country that shares so many of our values.

Or should that be valuables?

Tuesday, November 24, 2015

The A-hole award

Time is an ally. It's not without its problems, the main one being... it takes time.

But I'll usually wait things out and, more often than not (sometimes, quite unfortunately), reality and my opinion will eventually align.

Today, Turkey shot down a Russian war plane, which had, allegedly, violated its airspace.

As I've said previously, the Asshole in this Syrian story is not Russia. It's Turkey.

Turkey doesn't give a rat's ass about ISIS, provided they just go screw themselves somewhere else. When this "ally" of ours finally moved to do something in Syria, it bombed the Kurds, the only faction on the ground that was actually fighting ISIS effectively.

And the timing for this is not innocent, either. Russia has been trying to approach the West, because it has a few goals of its own to achieve, and won't be able to do it without a global consensus. And the Paris attacks have created a favourable context for that approach, one more favourable than we have seen in years. So, even though Russia could just "mis-aim" a couple of attacks as a payback, I don't believe it's in their best interest to do it now.

My bet? They'll take the slap in the face, take note, and wait. Time is an ally.

Speaking of timing, and on a related issue, I haven't quite decided what is the meaning of the power line sabotage in Crimea. Early days and all that. It could be Ukraine taking advantage of this same context. Or it could be something else. Just because Russia is not the Asshole in the picture, doesn't mean they're trustworthy. Let's give it some time.

Also on a related - and quite ironic - note. Our Asshole "ally" is the same Asshole the EU is ready to hand over hundreds of millions (and relax visa requirements, to boot).

I'll bet Greece is really happy, now.

Monday, November 16, 2015

After the tragedy...

Suddenly, everyone agrees on what has been bloody obvious for anyone graced with a brain cell count totaling above zero - dealing with terrorism requires an united front.

Of course, that's not going to happen. Oh, yes, we will get some sort of alliance between "our side", aka, The Good Guys (USA, UE, NATO, whatever), and "their side", aka, The Bad Guys (Russia, Iran, who else?), in order to fight The Even Worse Guys.

But, obviously, this alliance will be mined with political maneuvering from all parties, each more focused on gaining something from this situation, than on eliminating the threat.

From Russia's side, the concern about terrorism is a pretext for keeping an important ally in the Middle East, and creating some sort of leverage to keep the current Ukrainian status quo.

From "our" side... where do I begin?

The USA/EU are more concerned about making sure Russia loses its Syrian ally than about anything else.

I still maintain Ukraine is a trophy that keeps Berlin and Moscow butting heads, and I'm yet to see anything that proves me wrong.

I see our Ellected Accountants exhorting Russia to "change its strategy in Syria", all the while having friendly conversations with our Turkish "friends", who spend their time mostly bombing the Kurds, who have been the only force capable of effectively fighting ISIS right from the start. Worse, it's because of our Turkish "friends" we're not giving a higher level of support to the Kurds. That we have the gall of criticizing Russia when we have "allies" like Turkey clearly shows where our priorities lie.

Not to forget Yemen, naturally, where other "allies" of ours are carrying out a devastating bombing campaign, worse than anything the Russians have done; but that's OK, because they're on our side, and we're The Good Guys, right?

I know it might look like I'm defending Russia. Not really, though. I have no illusions about the Russian goals, here. What I never expected to say was - Yeah, the Russians are awful, but, man, when I look at our side... we're even worse...

This last decade has been extremely educational.