Arab Spring - Foresight? We can't even get hindsight

Some EU officials believe this refugee crisis, and the divisions it has created throughout Europe are going to destroy the EU. Apparently, someone said "If Schengen collapses, this will be the beginning of the end of the European project".

These people have not been paying attention for the past 4-5 years.

On a related note, Switzerland now joins Denmark in their "Refugees must pay their way in" scheme.

And the series of brain-dead Arab Spring review articles continues. This is my fave:

Moreover, the growth of Isis and its affiliates since 2014 has shown how extreme Islamist movements can take advantage of spaces where government has broken down. Indeed, Isis’s emphasis on the physical control of territory – which distinguishes it from al-Qaida – is a logical consequence of the power vacuums that emerged in many countries affected by the Arab spring.

Has shown...? As in "we needed this to happen to become aware of this possibility"?

I could mention the fact of having someone who was actually there, who alerted us to this "possibility", and who we, to this day, still call delusional. And he was definitely not the only one.

I'll admit I didn't see an outcome like the Daesh, I thought the radicals would get to power from elections, and then turn all those countries into religious states. 

But the rest? Even I knew this was more of a probability than a possibility. Not because of a flash of genius (which I very much doubt I possess), but because I tend to read opinions and views from as many different sides as possible. Because I don't tend to call someone "delusional" based solely on the "side" they're on. I listen to the words, and then look at the actions, and then make my opinion.

In the end, I find myself perpetually returning to that Bertrand Russel quote:

The fundamental cause of the trouble is that in the modern world the stupid are cocksure while the intelligent are full of doubt.

Caveat: I don't know if I'm all that intelligent.

I do know that most of the cocksure people I see do, most definitely, fit the above definition.