Banif and our hard-working European buddies

As the Banif soap opera unrolls (or should I say unravels), we now hear that our hard-working European buddies have been "most concerned" about Banif, for "quite some time" (at least, three years worth of "quite some time") and that there were "frequent contacts" between Lisbon and Brussels during this "quite some time".

Possibly for ordering pastéis de nata.

It all brings to mind Wheelie Boy, the German Finance Minister, when the Cyprus crisis blasted. I'll never forget good old WB going "Cyprus has been at this for years", and then surprinsigly leaving out what he - and all the other people who knew that "Cyprus had been at it for years" - had done to correct the problem. I can tell what all those marvelous hard-working people did, and I won't even have to bore you with details; fortunately for all of us, the English language has one word that neatly resumes all the effort put in by WB and other likewise hard-workers: Nothing.

And that is also what we have here. Our hard-working European buddies have been "most concerned", in "frequent contacts" (here's hoping they enjoyed their pastéis de nata), and... nothing happened.

Our ex-dear leader and his remarkable team sat on their asses for, at least, three years, and our hard-working European buddies... did the exact same thing.

It's good to know we're finally as efficient and as productive as our hard-working European buddies.

PS: Yes, yes, another Mea Culpa from the IMF. Who cares?

More European by the minute

Finally, we know the plan for dealing with the migrants, and I must say it's very European. No, that's definitely not a compliment.

We begin our display of European solidarity by telling the migrants that they either accept our "redistribution scheme" or we'll send them back (I'm eagerly waiting to see what this will entail). So, even though most of them want to go to Germany, Sweden, et al (aka, Paradise), they'll actually go to, say, Bulgaria, and like it. And they'll only have any sort of social support in the destination we choose for them. So, if they leave, say, Bulgaria, and head for Paradise, I suspect they'll be in a situation akin to illegal immigration.

If they don't accept, then they can apply right where they are. Which, mostly, means Greece and Italy. Most definitely not Paradise.

So, once again, our hard-working Northern buddies show their solidarity by making sure the mess is Someone Else's Problem(TM).

Oh, and 3K million euros for our Turkish friends, because only with this money can they stem the migrant tide. And let's also resume Turkey's EU membership negotiations, because, as we can plainly see, it's a country that shares so many of our values.

Or should that be valuables?

The A-hole award

Time is an ally. It's not without its problems, the main one being... it takes time.

But I'll usually wait things out and, more often than not (sometimes, quite unfortunately), reality and my opinion will eventually align.

Today, Turkey shot down a Russian war plane, which had, allegedly, violated its airspace.

As I've said previously, the Asshole in this Syrian story is not Russia. It's Turkey.

Turkey doesn't give a rat's ass about ISIS, provided they just go screw themselves somewhere else. When this "ally" of ours finally moved to do something in Syria, it bombed the Kurds, the only faction on the ground that was actually fighting ISIS effectively.

And the timing for this is not innocent, either. Russia has been trying to approach the West, because it has a few goals of its own to achieve, and won't be able to do it without a global consensus. And the Paris attacks have created a favourable context for that approach, one more favourable than we have seen in years. So, even though Russia could just "mis-aim" a couple of attacks as a payback, I don't believe it's in their best interest to do it now.

My bet? They'll take the slap in the face, take note, and wait. Time is an ally.

Speaking of timing, and on a related issue, I haven't quite decided what is the meaning of the power line sabotage in Crimea. Early days and all that. It could be Ukraine taking advantage of this same context. Or it could be something else. Just because Russia is not the Asshole in the picture, doesn't mean they're trustworthy. Let's give it some time.

Also on a related - and quite ironic - note. Our Asshole "ally" is the same Asshole the EU is ready to hand over hundreds of millions (and relax visa requirements, to boot).

I'll bet Greece is really happy, now.

After the tragedy...

Suddenly, everyone agrees on what has been bloody obvious for anyone graced with a brain cell count totaling above zero - dealing with terrorism requires an united front.

Of course, that's not going to happen. Oh, yes, we will get some sort of alliance between "our side", aka, The Good Guys (USA, UE, NATO, whatever), and "their side", aka, The Bad Guys (Russia, Iran, who else?), in order to fight The Even Worse Guys.

But, obviously, this alliance will be mined with political maneuvering from all parties, each more focused on gaining something from this situation, than on eliminating the threat.

From Russia's side, the concern about terrorism is a pretext for keeping an important ally in the Middle East, and creating some sort of leverage to keep the current Ukrainian status quo.

From "our" side... where do I begin?

The USA/EU are more concerned about making sure Russia loses its Syrian ally than about anything else.

I still maintain Ukraine is a trophy that keeps Berlin and Moscow butting heads, and I'm yet to see anything that proves me wrong.

I see our Ellected Accountants exhorting Russia to "change its strategy in Syria", all the while having friendly conversations with our Turkish "friends", who spend their time mostly bombing the Kurds, who have been the only force capable of effectively fighting ISIS right from the start. Worse, it's because of our Turkish "friends" we're not giving a higher level of support to the Kurds. That we have the gall of criticizing Russia when we have "allies" like Turkey clearly shows where our priorities lie.

Not to forget Yemen, naturally, where other "allies" of ours are carrying out a devastating bombing campaign, worse than anything the Russians have done; but that's OK, because they're on our side, and we're The Good Guys, right?

I know it might look like I'm defending Russia. Not really, though. I have no illusions about the Russian goals, here. What I never expected to say was - Yeah, the Russians are awful, but, man, when I look at our side... we're even worse...

This last decade has been extremely educational.

Congratulations on the Nobel Peace Prize

Congratulations not just to the Tunisian National Dialogue Quartet, by all accounts a deserving recipient of the Prize.

Congratulations also to the Nobel Committee. After the jokes that were the awards to Obama and the EU, it's refreshing to see the Prize going to someone who is actually... what's the word...? Ah, yes... worthy.

Early in the morning on Oct. 9, I was listening to the news, and someone was interviewed saying Mother Merkel was a serious contender. And I braced myself for another Nobel Peace Joke.

Fortunately, I was pleasantly surprised. A rare event, it's true. And one I would expect to experience more often, given that I'm a natural pessimist - if you always expect the worst, you should get plenty of good surprises.

Unfortunately, as pessimistic as I may be, the World always finds a way to make me look like Mary Poppins.

But not this time.

European "Generosity"

It's because of stories like this that I believe the goal of Germany & Friends is to push the mess and the chaos onto Someone Else.

Scattering these people across Europe will not only prolong their suffering, but also - as can be seen from these stories - can have negative consequences for the rest of their lives.

But what do our Friendly Generous European Friends, care? I mean, aren't they doing the Right Thing?

Yes, we, the Superior Europeans - along with our US Big Brother (pun probably intended) - always do the Right Thing. We do the Right Thing very often, but - paraphrasing one of our newly-found "heroes" - we're not yet bored of Doing the Right Thing.

We're very intent on doing the Right Thing. Like making sure we separate the "real refugees" from the "opportunistic economic migrants". How can we tell, you ask? Why, obviously, being Superior Europeans (yes, I'm making a significant effort to keep from making "master race" puns; don't tempt me, please), we've come up with a Cunning Plan(TM). Everyone who's not Syrian will receive a... how shall I put it... more generous dose of scrutiny as to what brings them to Europe.

And if it makes us kick out people who are actually refugees, fleeing conditions that most of us can't even begin to imagine... well, too bad, I guess.

As I read these horror stories (and I'm sure there's worse than this sample), I couldn't help thinking about how we, the Civilized West (along with other Equally Civilized parties like, say, Russia), contributed - and still do - to this state of affairs. The popular opinion is that we've made things worse by meddling. Actually, I don't believe that's entirely correct.

We've made things worse because all our actions, whether meddling or staying put, were driven solely by self-interest. Never by a genuine interest towards the affected people. This is what brought us where we are today. Driven mostly by greed and pseudo-ideology, we've broken these people's countries - and lives - beyond repair, and they did the only logical thing: Leave to a destination that's not yet broken. We just have to look to Syria and Ukraine to see a similar pattern in action: A "political" war between Russia and the West, where the only losers are the people who live there.

And now, we continue to apply this principle, right here in Europe. How? I'll finish as I began - by witnessing our Hard-Working Northern European countries do their best to push the mess and chaos onto Someone Else. As the first story I linked above shows, they'll end up receiving the vast majority of these refugees. But they'll use the rest of Europe as dams to make sure it happens in an orderly fashion.

In the meantime, Everyone Else will suffer. As usual. But no biggie, they're doing the Right Thing.

European arm-twist

And there we have it.

Hungary and their little buddies have tasted the same medicine they served Greece. And they've learned that it's in their best interest not to mess with Germany Und Ze Big Jungen.

I'll now await the next episodes of this gripping drama, whereupon Europe, with the blessing of the UN, scatters thousands of people to places where they don't actually want to go. Heh, but what do they know, right? I mean, we're Europeans, surely we know what's best for them. After all, haven't we been choosing what's best for them for decades? And to such brilliant results?

I'd say every far-right party in Europe must be jumping with glee at this decision. After all, that's how they grow - not by their own merit, but by the sheer idiocy of the "bright and best" Elected Accountants who rule us.

Let's see how it goes. The first interesting election will be in Poland, next month.

Of sowing and reaping

One reaps what one sows. There are exceptions to this rule, but the rule stands.

And that's something all of us, in Europe, will eventually learn, probably sooner, rather than later.

The refugee crisis is just the latest issue where Germany is receiving the results of the policy of arm-twisting it has been visibly promoting for the last few years. All was well when they had a majority of buddies to put us lazy southerners in our place. Now, things are a bit thornier.

Had Germany been cultivating any kind of real leadership (which is difficult, since no country in Europe has Leaders, only Elected Accountants), it would have been easier to find a joint solution to this problem. However, since Merkel & Wheelie favour a Diktat style, things may get ugly.

Merkel has demanded (how surprising, heh?) a special summit next week, to have another go at mandatory quotas. She considers it unfair that Germany and Sweden receive all the refugees. Has our Teutonic High Accountant taken the time to ask said refugees where they want to go? From what I've read, they're not too keen on Bulgaria. She has a good chance of imposing these quotas, since she controls the purse; and when you have the power, when you can't lead, you can always bully.

However, the results of this kind of "leadership" are sadly predictable:

• Resentment will grow in the countries that are forced to accept refugees.

In Hungary, the ruling party (Fidesz) is concerned about its popularity ratings, which have fallen recently. This could be a good sign, except that the polls show this fall was coincident with the rise of another, more radical, right-wing party (Jobbik). It could work out. If the ruling party loses steam and their support base shifts even more to the right, there could be some defection to the centre, enough to give the power back to the moderates. However, it could also backfire; and, if it does, we may find ourselves thinking the unthinkable: "Boy, I miss that Orban fellow".

• The refugees placed in these countries will not have a pleasant life.

If a ruler states clearly he doesn't want any refugees in his country, chances are he has the support of a significant part of his people. How do we expect those people will react when they are forced to receive said refugees? It's a lose/lose scenario.

• The refugees placed in these countries will go to their intended destinations.

It's irrelevant where they're registred or where they're supposed to wait until their asylum request is being processed. They want to go to Germany, Sweden, UK, Denmark, Norway, Holland. They don't want to go to Hungary or Poland. They most definitely don't want to stay in Greece. They don't even want to stay in Italy.

Saying "Bulgaria will take x thousand refugees" is a waste of time and money for everyone involved, especially Bulgaria. Resources will be devoted to receiving these people. There will certainly be Bulgarian institutions and individuals who will do their best to make these people welcome. But Bulgaria will always have a fatal flaw - it's not Germany, Sweden, etc. Unless border controls are back to stay, the refugees will leave.

If I can see this, anyone can. Even our High Accountant, in all her inifinite wisdom. So, why is Germany pushing for this idiocy?

If I had to guess, I'd say they're buying time. The Germans are supposedly furious that the Italians and the Greeks are not doing their job correctly, namely, registering all arriving refugees before they are allowed to continue their journey North. However, since they will head North, what difference does it make?

As I said, my money is on time. I mean this in the sense that it's one thing for the Germans to receive 800K people on a steady trickle distributed over many months. It's another to receive them as a raging current over a few weeks.

However... at the point of origin (South Mediterranian), we have a raging current. In order to turn this into a trickle, we need dams. And this is what Germany wants, with all this talk about quotas and proper registration. It wants Someone Else(TM), as usual, to take the consequences of the problem, so they can be insulated in their quiet little spot.

Sure, they'll take their 800K, 1M, 2M, whatever. But they'll take it in an orderly fashion, ein, zwei, ein, zwei. Let someone else deal with the problem of taking a raging current and turning it into a trickle. Let the Italians and the Greeks receive the refugees by the thousands. And then, provide them with some kind of food and shelter. And then, register them properly. And then, maybe, send them somewhere else, based on this whole quota bullshit. And, during all this time, the countries where most of these refugees will end up will have been shielded from this chaotic mess. Oh, and they'll pay for it, if necessary.

This is what our hard-working efficient Northern friends want, and it's nothing new - let someone else deal with the messy chaos, so they can continue to protect their orderly little lives.

Solidarity... German style

On my last post, I wrote this:

I'm curious to see how will Germany twist the arm... er... sorry, I meant... secure the cooperation... yes, that's it... how will Germany secure the cooperation of its former anti-Greece allies.

Eh eh eh... Merkel & Wheelie are never a dynamic duo to disappoint.

During this year's Greek Hanging... er, I mean, Crisis, Merkel & Wheelie went on and on about how no help could be provided for Greece without further reforms (reforms such as "Hand over your airports, please"), and they mentioned ad nauseam how it would be unfair to ask countries like Hungary or Bulgaria to fork over the required millions.

Of course, said countries were more than happy to oblige and, much like our Portuguese Dear Leader, parrot Germany's line, namely "What's in it for me?".

Apparently, the honeymoon may now be over, as Germany seems poised to turn on its former parrots, going as far as considering withdrawing funds from those who refuse this fantastic idea of mandatory refugee quotas.

Indeed, I find the wording absolutely brilliant:

Austria’s chancellor, Werner Faymann, has suggested that if no consensus was reached in Brussels, Germany and its allies could try to force through a vote on quotas with a qualified majority.

He said Austria and Germany – both net contributors to the EU budget – would consider sanctions against countries refusing to share the refugee burden. This might include axing some EU structural funds from which “east European states profit most of all”.

So, we have "Germany and its allies"; this seems to suggest there are enemies. Oh, sorry, that's not really PC. I meant "adversaries". And the sanctions would hurt "east European states (...) most of all", i.e., the above-mentioned parrots.

That's solidarity for you. Not surprising, naturally, after witnessing the same brand of "solidarity" handed over to us. I'm sure our hard-working Eastern Europe buddies will enjoy it as much as we did.

Turning the sarcasm down just a bit (hah, who am I kidding?), we could call this "A Series of Extremely Stupid Events". I've already stated my opinion of the EU's behaviour during the Arab Spring. The US has its share of blame, naturally. Not only on the Arab Spring, but especially on Iraq, on how it completely mishandled the balance of power between the different factions, and how it botched beyond imagination the exit plan (which I'd guess must have consisted of nothing other than the word "Leave").

And now we see Germany - again - repeating the same lesson to Europe - Each man for himself. From "Send you refugees here, we can take millions of them", we moved on to "Other countries must take their share of this burden", and now to "Other countries will take their share of this burden, and like it".

And this is the Extremely Stupid (TM) part (aka, "Normal EU Behaviour") - they can, indeed, manage to twist the arms of Hungary, Poland, etc. to accept the quotas. But if they expect that these refugees will have a good life in those countries, then they are even more stupid than I previously believed.

I'll wait and see, but I expect the large majority of refugees placed in the hands of our Eastern European friends will end up in Germany, anyway.

It never ceases to amaze, watching our Elected Accountants in action.

The European "Heart Warming" Union

As I've written yesterday, German leadership (hah!) of the EU has pushed to the forefront the sentiment that the motto for the EU is "each man for himself". Nowhere has this been more evident than in the treatment given to Greece, in these past months. Although, as I've also written before, Syriza's strategy - or lack of it - had a significant weight on the outcome.

Now, we see Germany's central European buddies, who stood squarely on Merkel's side when it was time to screw the Greeks, applying the lesson they learnt from Berlin, basically saying "Yes, this refugee crisis is a bummer. Here, would you like a corridor for them to get to you faster? Because we sure as hell don't want them here".

I'm curious to see how will Germany twist the arm... er... sorry, I meant... secure the cooperation... yes, that's it... how will Germany secure the cooperation of its former anti-Greece allies.

Because I expect Hungary, Poland et al will be asking Germany the same question they presented, together with Germany, to Greece - what's in it for me?

In the Greek case, Germany already got a dozen airports. I'd say this is a promising beginning of a successful formula.

So, as I've also written yesterday, I can't really blame these Elected Accountants (no, there's no one in today's Europe that deserves the word "leader") for taking this attitude. They're just following the example that led to the above successful formula.

As I wrote this, it just occurred to me that maybe I'm wrong. Maybe the motto for the EU shouldn't be "Each Man For Himself", but rather "What's In It For Me?". It expresses far more beautifully the current sentiment of European Solidarity and Cooperation.

The migrant crisis in Europe

And here we are, then, under the brilliant German leadership of Merkel & Wheelie.

It has been particularly depressing to watch the "response" (yes, it's a vicious abuse of the word) from the European institutions to this migrant crisis, with even our good old Durão Burroso saying the fault lies not with the EU, but with each individual country.

I assume these "individual countries" he mentioned are the same that have been driving, for the last few years, Europe's current sentiment of "each man for himself", with which they screwed the Greeks (and us, too). Not that we didn't deserve it, little parasitic toadies that we were, brazenly living above our means, and all that.

Well, now our teutonic "friends" (and their associates) are shocked (shocked! I tell you) that some European countries are looking at this migrant crisis from a perspective of... each man for himself.

As they say in Astrology and Economy - Who could've predicted that?

I'd like to be angry at Hungary, but I really can't. Yes, their leader is an asshole, but he's just being a good European asshole, following the clues that Berlin has been dropping for years. In fact, if he really did say this was a "German problem", I'd say he got the rules of the game admirably well. He's an intelligent asshole, and I have to admire him for that. We've also elected an asshole here, yes, but we forgot to pay attention to the "intelligent" bit. Our fault, really.

So, we suddenly have a humanitarian crisis to solve. Totally unexpected (er... who could've predicted that?), after our leaders' (I'm a vicious word abuser, I know) completely responsible handling of what we used to call the Arab Spring. After much idiotic rejoicing over an outcome that anyone with half a brain cell could see was an extremely long shot (and with a path full of perils that required a lot more commitment than half-wit statements from brain-dead officials), we Europeans did what we're best at - whistling to the side, and pushing the issue with the belly.

And, as I began, here we are. This, ladies and gentlemen, is what happens when we prefer to elect accountants, instead of leaders. At least, our books will be a shining example to the world. Well, that is, unless we're using Goldman Sachs consultants, in which case our books will blaze like a thousand suns, as if forged from star matter.

Yes, we must keep our priorities straight. Or, as our Dear Leader said, in one of his numerous memorable quotes - the people are worse off, but the country is better off.

More German than the Germans, I guess...

Who cares...?

Ever since Syriza won the elections in Greece, I suspected the best thing they could do was get on the phone with anyone other than European countries - Russia, China, India... Iran, if necessary. Invest all their effort into forging new partnerships and prepare for inevitably being kicked out of the Euro.

If Tsipras tried this at the very beginning and failed, no fault there, I guess. If he didn't, if he believed he could change Europe, and only started considering alternatives recently... in that case, I lack adjectives...

Me? I have no illusions about Moscow, but, these days, I have even less illusions about Berlin. And, at least, Putin speaks his mind directly, he doesn't use other countries to deliver his messages.

It's curious... when Portugal joined the EEC, I looked up to the BRD (or RFA, in Portuguese), central Europe, Scandinavia, the UK... pretty much everyone in there was way better than Portugal; I admired those countries, and I felt proud to be accepted in such a community.

Time went by, and even before 2011, I had already concluded this was no community. I had yet to vote against Europe, but I knew it would take a miraculous turn of events for me to vote for Europe.

Today? AFAIC, the sooner Portugal leaves the Euro and the EU, the better. Yes, I know, my income will fall drastically. Yes, there is a high probability that I'll lose my job.

I don't care. I don't really feel a sense of belonging about Portugal, so my attitude doesn't originate in some idealistic nationalism. However, while I don't really feel that sense of belonging about Portugal, I feel a huge sense of shame about being European.

I can't do much about the former, but I'll sure use my vote to solve the latter.

Where would Portugal turn to? Like I said, Russia, China... Angola. What's that? Terrible company, you say? Yes, I know. But if there's one thing I've suspected since 2011 and these past 6 months confirmed, is that the EU, in all its unending civilized superiority, is no better.