Tuesday, November 24, 2015

The A-hole award

Time is an ally. It's not without its problems, the main one being... it takes time.

But I'll usually wait things out and, more often than not (sometimes, quite unfortunately), reality and my opinion will eventually align.

Today, Turkey shot down a Russian war plane, which had, allegedly, violated its airspace.

As I've said previously, the Asshole in this Syrian story is not Russia. It's Turkey.

Turkey doesn't give a rat's ass about ISIS, provided they just go screw themselves somewhere else. When this "ally" of ours finally moved to do something in Syria, it bombed the Kurds, the only faction on the ground that was actually fighting ISIS effectively.

And the timing for this is not innocent, either. Russia has been trying to approach the West, because it has a few goals of its own to achieve, and won't be able to do it without a global consensus. And the Paris attacks have created a favourable context for that approach, one more favourable than we have seen in years. So, even though Russia could just "mis-aim" a couple of attacks as a payback, I don't believe it's in their best interest to do it now.

My bet? They'll take the slap in the face, take note, and wait. Time is an ally.

Speaking of timing, and on a related issue, I haven't quite decided what is the meaning of the power line sabotage in Crimea. Early days and all that. It could be Ukraine taking advantage of this same context. Or it could be something else. Just because Russia is not the Asshole in the picture, doesn't mean they're trustworthy. Let's give it some time.

Also on a related - and quite ironic - note. Our Asshole "ally" is the same Asshole the EU is ready to hand over hundreds of millions (and relax visa requirements, to boot).

I'll bet Greece is really happy, now.

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