"Portugal is headed in the wrong direction" says...

... Poul Thomsen.

Who?!

He's this IMF bloke who visited us often, a few years ago (you know, "Love the climate, the cuisine, the people are nice, etc..."). A very "cocksure" person, borrowing Bertrand Russel's definition.

Yeah, I know, I said I was done writing about the IMF. So, sue me.

He's quite "cocksure" that Portugal is headed in the wrong direction, that the Portuguese people should be served another dose of austerity.

He could be right, obviously. But I wonder...

This remarkable fellow came into our lives as the head of the troika, sent in when we asked for "help".

Among his current criticisms is the "high Portuguese debt". Curiously absent from his arguments was the growth said debt incurred while under the troika's program.

Another curious omission from the certainty he displayed was an opinion about our banking system. Why would I have liked to hear it?

Because the terribly efficient troika he led had, among its goals, the sanitizing of the Portuguese banking system. And a couple of years later the troika left, under what they and our ex-Dear Leader called a "Clean Exit". Meaning "Jolly good show, pats on the back to everyone, there you have it, off you go".

And now, a couple more years later, what we found out is that everyone involved in this "jolly good show" has been tremendously productive at nothing but under-the-rug-sweeping and belly-pushing, and our banking system is worst than when the troika arrived (BTW, so is our debt, did I mention that...?)

So, this fine example of Dunning-Kruger, no doubt based on the remarkable results he has achieved here, keeps spouting certainties, taken out of some part of his body best left unmentioned.

He could be right. It's just that, so far, he hasn't.